Dr. Red Eye

Recently, I posted that people are getting too worked up about where Cleveland Cavaliers free agent superstar LeBron James is going to play his next 5 seasons. While it’s perfectly fine to be interested in sports (even the NBA), some people make such a big deal about where James is headed, that James is going to patronize them with an hour-long ESPN special entitled “The Decision.”

James speaks to kids at his camp on the eve of his Decision.

To me, whether your neighbor down the street decides to keep her unborn baby is more worthy of being called “The Decision.” But I digress.

Today’s post is actually about James’ Decision. I don’t know where James is going. Some say Miami, others say New York. But I can tell you where James should be going: Chicago. That’s a proverbial slam dunk. And I’m not just saying that as a Bulls fan.

In Miami, James would join a formidable trio with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. The three are apparently good friends and I’m sure James would enjoy playing with his friends. But there’s a slight problem: money. Or lack thereof. The Heat have about $30 million in cap space. Wade takes up $16 million; Bosh between $11-14 million. That leaves between $0-4 million per year for James. Even if the Heat trades Michael Beasley, the team still couldn’t give James a max contract. It doesn’t make sense for James to accept being the third-highest paid player on his team, friends or no friends.

While fans always rip players for making business decisions based on money, money connotes status to all athletes. It’s why Tennessee Titans superstar RB Chris Johnson, who is making $550,000, is holding out of camp in order to get a contract more in line with what he perceives as his worth. It happens all the time.

What’s more, the Heat have no supporting cast. If the Heat manage to sign James, there would be zero money left for the other 7 players on their roster, which would have to literally be filled with minimum-salary scrubs. Even the Boston Celtics, with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen still had emerging superstar Rajon Rondo and top veteran Rasheed Wallace to fill out the roster. The Heat would have no one even remotely close so, despite ignorant fans & media proclaiming a James-Wade-Bosh triumvirate as automatic multiple championships, the Heat probably would still not be able to compete with the Celtics, much less win one single championship.

Furthermore, Miami is a small market. It may have the nightlife and the beaches but it has a dim marketing opportunity for James. In addition, James would have to share that limited market with his co-stars Wade and Bosh. James wouldn’t be able to separate himself and establish himself as The Man in that basketball trinity, just as Piece, Garnett and Allen have all be forever linked, with no one rising above the other during the Celtics’ success.

So the Heat makes the least amount of sense for James b/c there’s no money, there’s no chance to shine above his teammates, and it’ll still be tough to win. The only thing going for the Heat would be the opportunity to play with buddies (albeit as the lowest paid of the buddies).

What about New York? NYC is after all the biggest market in the world, so it offers James a great opportunity to grow his global brand. And unlike the Heat, they have the cap space to offer James a max contract. Plus, the Knicks just signed power forward Amare Stoudemire. Unfortunately for New York, that’s the extent of its leverage.

The Knicks are a woeful team, having nine consecutive losing seasons. After Stoudemire, the remainder of the Knicks’ roster is only marginally better than the Heat’s, which is to say: still mighty bad. The Knicks’ best player, free agent David Lee, is all but gone since he plays the same position as Stoudemire. Winning here will be as challenging as winning with Cleveland, maybe tougher. So the Knicks would also be a bad choice on its own merits.

The Nets can also offer a max contract to James and they have a couple pieces in their roster with Devin Harris and lottery pick Derrick Favors. James is also buddies with minority owner Jay-Z, although I think that has less sway than being buddies with teammates. Billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov understands the importance of the James brand growing globally.

But New Jersey is also a low-wattage team and market, despite whatever efforts Prokhorov may attempt. They’ll still play in Newark for two seasons before moving to Brooklyn. While the supporting cast is better than Miami and New York, it’s still not championship quality yet. And there’s just nothing inherently sexy about playing for New Jersey.

Cleveland is James’ hometown team, so there’s an emotional element in James staying. Supposedly, James tried to recruit Bosh to Cleveland, so it appears that staying in Cleveland is a serious option for James. Cleveland can also offer more money and one more year in contract length than any other team. And unlike in Miami, James would be the undisputed star on the team in Cleveland.

The only problem is that Cleveland just can’t give James the championships he craves. No matter who the Cavaliers bring in, the team just doesn’t get far in the playoffs. On a minor footnote, James wouldn’t sell as many jerseys if he stays in Cleveland. But very importantly, Cleveland is a small market, so like Miami and New Jersey, it limits his marketing opportunities. So the only reason to stay in Cleveland is for the hometown familiarity.

Which brings us to Chicago. The Bulls can give James a max contract. The Bulls were James’ favorite team growing up. Michael Jordan was James’ idol growing up. Chicago is a huge mega-watt market, as Michael Jordan can attest. The Bulls also offer the best supporting cast of any other team, even the Heat. A Bulls team of James, emerging superstars Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, veteran star Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng and young Taj Gibson is deeper than one with just James, Wade and Bosh, so James joining the Bulls would offer, in my opinion, a greater opportunity for championships than James joining the Heat. In addition, James would be the undisputed King of Chicago, unlike in Miami, and that is very important in quickly growing the James brand. Chicago has a new head coach who has coached winning defenses. There are a plethora of reasons to come to the Bulls, many more than there are for any other team. The downside to coming to Chicago? Maybe not playing with his buddies in Miami. But that’s about it. And as I said previously, that’s not even a really compelling reason if you’re not the highest-paid among your buddies.

New Bull Carlos Boozer said James texted him that “The Decision” was between two teams. My hunch is that it’s between Cleveland and Chicago. And while I obviously don’t know what he will ultimately decide, I know it should be Chicago.

If only all decisions were that easy.